Julio Pérez Díaz

Biography

In it we propose a simple exercise of simulation, constructing the tables of life, not of the people, but of the couples, if the only cause of dissolution was the death of one or that of both spouses. As with the mortality tables of the people, it is a question of emulating a cohort, this time not of births, but of "continuous" unions since they are formed (although the starting point is the mortality tables for men and women separately), and certain assumptions about the respective age to which they are coupled. It is an emulation, of course, because the data by age do not correspond to a real generation, but to the different ages coexistent in each historical moment analyzed. It is, therefore, an exercise in "fiction"; of course, the cohorts of royal unions do not disappear, as they reach their age, according to the different age-specific mortalities of a particular historical year, but to the changing mortality conditions over the lifetime of their members, without to count that death is not the only cause that can dissolve the unions. Why analyze, then, a fiction like this? Our motivation was to ascertain and quantify, from a model, how much changes in mortality can change the conditions in which not only the ages that experience them, but the whole course of later life move. All too often we fall into the mistaken impression that the great advances of mortality recorded in the past no longer affect the current dynamics and demographic structures, which rather have to do with cultural, values, and attitudinal changes. Our simulation evidences that the changes experienced by mortality during the last century are sufficient and very powerful reasons for the present spectacular historical changes in the possible duration of the unions, but also have other consequences of great depth on the forms of coexistence and families, especially on widowhood, lead to a profound restructuring of households and contribute essentially to a future and easily predictable scenario of substantial changes in gender roles and age, all of which in which mortality is often omitted as a factor determinant. We will be happy if you are interested in the subject, and more so if you want to send us your comments or comments.

Research Interest

MORTALITY AND DURATION OF UNIONS